BAS Digital product · “Planning” package

Financial model: the business in scenarios

Not a “spreadsheet of dreams” but a working 2–3 year model: you change the drivers — price, volume, margin, inventory — and see what happens to profit, cash and financing needs. Ten scenarios: from the “perfect storm” to a breakthrough.

Discuss the “Planning” package

How it differs from a regular “budget in Excel”

A regular plan draws revenue as “last year plus 20%” and drags the rows down. Our model is driver-based: revenue isn’t drawn, it’s assembled from the physics of the business. So the model honestly shows what “growth budgets” hide: growth eats cash — more sales means more inventory and receivables, and the peak financing need comes before the peak profit.

The model chain: each block is calculated from the previous one

Funnel

CustomersOrdersAverage order

Sales

By productBy priceBy channel

Margin

PurchasingCommissionsBonuses

Working capital

InventoryReceivablesPayables

Cash

P&LCashCredit line

Everything is driven by drivers

A yellow cell is your input, a white one is a formula. Change an assumption and three years recalculate month by month. Note the third driver: a price increase in the model always comes with elasticity. The “we raised the price and everyone stayed” scenario is a fairy tale, and we don’t sell it.

“Assumptions” sheet · yellow cell — your input · illustrative values

Order volume growth

+8%%/year

Revenue via the funnel

Price increase — main brand

+3%%

Revenue and margin

Volume response to price (elasticity)

−0,2×

An honest brake: some customers will leave

Target stock level

4,5 → 3,0mo.

Tied-up cash and purchasing

Customer payment terms (DSO)

−5days

Speed of cash return

Growth investment (marketing, people)

1 500€/mo

Costs before the effect

Ten scenarios — one button

Every scenario has a story (“what’s happening in the business”), not just a set of percentages. They switch with one cell and compare side by side. In between — decline, steady zero, growth with a light price rise, price leader, price + volume, market maximum. Negative scenarios come first — the plan starts with “what kills us”, not with a pretty upward curve.

Downside firstBaselineGrowth

Perfect stormA key salesperson leaves with their clients — how many months the business survives

DeclineThe market drops 10% — where’s the point at which we cut costs

Inertia (today)Change nothing — where the trend takes us in 3 years

Cash disciplineSame sales, but stock 4.5 → 3 months and shorter payment terms: how much cash is freed

Steady zeroVolume growth offsets inflation — profit doesn’t grow, but doesn’t fall either

Growth with a light price rise+3% on price with elasticity −0.2: what’s left after the customers who leave

Price leaderPrice below market, betting on volume — will the margin hold

Price + volumeBoth drivers up — how much working capital growth will eat

Market maximumThe upper bound of demand — the revenue ceiling under the current model

BreakthroughA distribution leap: how much financing it needs and what it returns

This is a sample set — your scenarios will differScenarios are tailored to your business and your model: which risks are real for you, which growth levers are available, what you plan to decide in the coming year. Ten is a typical number; the mix is always individual.

Discuss your scenarios

The model is anchored in facts

The first months are facts, not planThe starting months in the model are real data reconciled with the accounts: every fact with a source reference. The forecast grows out of reality, not thin air.

Owner’s break-evenThe model calculates not an abstract break-even but yours: what revenue is needed to cover the business, the owner’s withdrawals and debt service.

Peak cash needThe key figure for talks with the bank: the maximum credit line over the period — for each scenario.

Assumptions are flaggedEvery premise is labelled: a fact from your files or an estimate for discussion. You can argue with a specific cell.

Honestly: what it does not do

—It doesn’t predict the future — it shows the consequences of decisions under given assumptions. The quality of the answer equals the honesty of the inputs.

—It doesn’t live without updates — once a quarter the plan is compared with actuals and the assumptions are revised; that’s part of the “Planning” package.

—Not everyone needs it: if accounting isn’t yet at “Control”, the model will be built on sand — implementation first, then planning.

The financial model is the top of the ladder, not its start

First reliable accounting (implementation), then analytics, then the model and budgets. We build it on your real figures — that’s why it can be trusted.

Discuss the “Planning” package

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