BAS Digital product · Planning package

Financial model:
your business in scenarios

Not a 'spreadsheet of dreams' but a working model for 2–3 years: you change the drivers — price, volume, margin, inventory — and see what happens to profit, cash, and financing needs. Ten scenarios: from a 'perfect storm' to a breakthrough.

Questions the model answers in a minute: 'we raise prices 5% and lose some clients — are we ahead or behind?' · 'how much cash will 25% growth eat?' · 'what revenue does the business need to feed the owner — counting all his withdrawals?'

How it differs from a regular 'budget in Excel'

A regular plan draws revenue as 'last year plus 20%' and drags the rows down. Our model is driver-based: revenue isn't drawn, it's assembled from the physics of the business.

Funnelclients · orders · average ticket

Salesby product, price, channel

Marginpurchasing, commissions, bonuses

Working capitalinventory · receivables · payables

CashP&L · cash · credit line

That's why the model honestly shows what 'growth budgets' hide: growth eats cash — more sales means more inventory and receivables, and the peak financing need arrives before the peak profit.

Everything is driven by drivers

A yellow cell is your input, a white one is a formula. Change an assumption — three years recalculate month by month.

'Assumptions' sheet — excerpt (illustrative values)

Driver	Unit	Value	What it moves
Order volume growth	%/yr	+8%	revenue via the funnel
Price increase — main brand	%	+3%	revenue and margin
Volume response to price (elasticity)	×	−0.2	an honest brake: some clients will leave
Target inventory level	mo.	4.5 → 3.0	frozen cash and purchasing
Customer payment terms (DSO)	days	−5	how fast cash comes back
Growth investment (marketing, people)	€/mo	1,500	costs ahead of the effect

Note the third driver: a price increase in the model always comes with elasticity. The scenario 'we raised prices and everyone stayed' is a fairy tale, and we don't sell it.

Ten scenarios — one switch

Each scenario has a story ('what's happening in the business'), not just a set of percentages. They switch with one cell and compare side by side.

Scenario 1

Perfect stormthe key salesperson leaves with their clients — how many months the business survives

Scenario 3

Inertia (today)we change nothing — where the trend takes us in 3 years

Scenario 4

Cash disciplinesame sales, but inventory 4.5 → 3 months and shorter terms: how much cash is freed up

Scenario 10

Breakthrougha distribution leap: how much financing it requires and what it returns

In between — decline, a stable zero, growth with a light price bump, price leader, price+volume, market maximum. The negative scenarios come first — the plan starts with 'what kills us', not with a pretty upward curve.

The model is anchored in actuals

The first months are actuals, not plan. The model's starting months are real data reconciled with the books: every fact with a link to its source. The forecast grows out of reality, not thin air.

The owner's break-even. The model doesn't compute an abstract break-even but yours: what revenue is needed to cover the business, the owner's withdrawals, and debt service.

Peak cash need. The key number for talks with the bank: the maximum credit line over the period — for each scenario.

Assumptions are labeled. Every premise is signed: a fact from your files or an estimate up for discussion. You can argue with a specific cell.

Honestly: what the model does not do.

It doesn't predict the future — it shows the consequences of decisions under given assumptions. The quality of the answer equals the honesty of the inputs.
It doesn't live without updates — once a quarter the plan is checked against actuals and assumptions are revised (part of the Planning package).
Not everyone needs it: if the books aren't at 'Control' yet, the model will be built on sand — implementation first, planning second.

The financial model is the top of the ladder, not its start

First reliable accounting (implementation), then analytics, then the model and budgets. We build it on your real numbers — that's why it can be trusted.

Discuss the Planning package →

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